Automotive Business Magazine – Q3 2026 – Digital edition - Flipbook - Page 53
WEBINAR INSIGHT
COX AUT OMOT IVE
What is your view on the outlook for BEV values?
The outlook for BEV values remains challenging
in the short-term but improving over time.
Recent volatility has been driven by oversupply
from the return of fleet volumes, heavy
OEM discounting to meet ZEV targets, and
increasing competition from new entrants,
all of which have put particular pressure on
nearly-new values.
As a result, depreciation has been sharper
than for other fuel types. However, early signs
suggest the market is beginning to absorb
importance of the delivery stage in shaping
overall customer perception and satisfaction.
However, the bigger shift is that loyalty is
now determined after the customer leaves
the forecourt. Post purchase engagement,
aftersales service, and ongoing communication
are increasingly key drivers of retention and
lifetime value.
How much lower can EV used
values go as new car volumes
and discounts keep increasing?
The outlook suggests limited room for further
sharp declines, but continued near-term
pressure. EV values have already undergone a
significant correction, particularly in nearly-new
segments, where heavy OEM discounting and
rising supply have driven steep depreciation.
With ZEV-driven volumes and competitive
pricing still feeding into the market, some
additional softening is possible, especially if
supply continues to outpace demand. However,
the market is now moving into a more stabilised
phase rather than a sustained decline – early
signs of values levelling out, and returning to
more typical depreciation patterns as supply
normalises and buyer confidence improves.
While downward pressure remains, the
majority of the value reset has already occurred,
and future movements are more likely to be
incremental and shaped by pricing discipline,
affordability and how well demand catches up
with supply.
this supply more effectively, and prices are
stabilising. The medium-term trajectory is
more positive, but remains dependent on key
market dynamics – stabilising residual values,
improving demand as affordability increases
and a gradual shift toward more normal
depreciation patterns.
Values are likely to remain sensitive to
regulation, pricing discipline and supply levels
in the near term, before settling into a more
balanced position over time.
What message would you like
viewers to take with them as
they move forward?
Nothard: The market is not broken, but it is
more complex and less forgiving than it has
been for some time. We're seeing a continued
shift from a demand-led environment to one
increasingly influenced by supply, regulation and
pricing discipline. Used values are stabilising
in many areas, but that stability is fragile, and
highly dependent on how effectively volume,
pricing and consumer demand are managed
across different fuel types and segments.
Success now depends on clarity of insight
and agility. Businesses need to understand their
exposure, whether that's EVs, new entrants or
changing consumer behaviour, and respond with
disciplined stock, pricing and retail strategies.
Those that can balance volume with value, and
stay close to real-time market signals, will be
best positioned.
Swinerd: The slower-than-anticipated adoption
of EVs is having consequences. It's clear the
impact it has on dealer and fleet channels in the
UK. It also has a ripple effect through the supply
chain to OEMs and to more nascent businesses
operating on the periphery, such as battery
manufacturers, recyclers, and charge point
operators. This is making the sector difficult
for investors and lenders to see a return on
invested capital, which potentially places further
pressure on the UK's automotive sector to adapt
to the changes ahead.
Where the UK Car Market is Heading –
And How to Stay Ahead of It
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